The recent history and future prospects of the UK welfare state

By Nick Pearce and Gavin Kelly
Public Service Reform

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK welfare state’s trajectory over the last few decades, emphasizing the dynamic interplay between political, economic, and social factors that have shaped its evolution. Pearce and Kelly trace the welfare state’s retrenchment during periods of austerity, especially following the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting how welfare reforms disproportionately affected working-age adults through tightened eligibility criteria and reduced benefits. They also explore targeted expansions, such as increased support for childcare and pensioners, which illustrate a selective approach to welfare provision. The article contextualizes these reforms within shifting electoral coalitions and ideological battles, demonstrating how governments have balanced fiscal constraints with political demands. The authors argue that these changes reflect a broader transformation of the UK’s liberal welfare model, influenced by globalization, labour market shifts, and demographic pressures.

Looking forward, Pearce and Kelly discuss the pressing challenges confronting the welfare state amid rising economic insecurity, inflation, and the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They highlight the need for policy innovation that addresses inequality and social risk in a more holistic manner, advocating for reforms that strengthen social protection while fostering economic participation. The article suggests that future welfare policy must grapple with balancing universalism and targeting, as well as integrating welfare with other policy domains like housing, health, and education. Ultimately, the authors envision a welfare state that adapts to 21st-century realities by combining social solidarity with economic resilience, but caution that political will and public consensus will be crucial to any meaningful reform.

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